The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport has unveiled a "housing stability plan" to supply 1.19 million public homes by 2030. That works out to roughly 240,000 units a year, 90,000 more than the 1.1 million target set out in the government's earlier policy agenda. Some 77% of the total, or 920,000 units, will be concentrated in the greater Seoul area, where housing insecurity is most severe. The ministry is also diversifying delivery methods to include construction, purchases of existing homes, jeonse (a Korean lease system requiring a large lump-sum deposit instead of monthly rent) units and presale housing, and will introduce a "universal public rental" program aimed at middle-income households. To that end, it designated the Daejang-dong area in Goyang and the Ojeon-dong and Wanggok-dong areas in Uiwang, both in Gyeonggi Province, as new public housing districts, where a combined 23,000 units will be built.
With home prices and rents climbing and the housing ladder collapsing for young adults and newlyweds, expanding the public sector's role is necessary. The public rental budget for next year also stands at a record 34 trillion won. The issue is not the figure of 1.19 million but the speed of execution. Previous governments also rushed to announce large-scale supply plans, only to see move-in dates slip as they ran into difficulties securing land, resident opposition, permit delays and rising construction costs. Even if this plan breaks ground on schedule, a large share of the units will likely become available only after the end of 2029. In other words, with home prices and jeonse deposits surging right now, move-in volumes far in the future are unlikely to calm the market.
Indeed, even the major land development projects the government put forward in its Jan. 29 and Aug. 13 housing measures — including the Gwacheon racecourse site, Yongsan Park and Yeomchang Park — are running into trouble amid interagency negotiations and local opposition. Against that backdrop, simply raising the public housing target risks producing another rosy blueprint. The government must present a concrete timetable covering land acquisition and permits for each candidate site, construction start and move-in dates, and financing plans. Only then can the market trust the government's commitment to supply.
Moreover, with private-sector housing starts plunging, there are limits to stabilizing the market through public supply alone. The government must pair this with measures that reasonably ease rules on the rebuilding of aging apartment complexes and the redevelopment of districts, and that improve the profitability of private projects in urban centers. Only a dual-track push by both the public and private sectors offers an answer. The fact that the private sector accounted for 87.5% of homes supplied in Seoul over the past 20 years makes the point. The success or failure of housing supply policy depends not on the numbers announced but on the ability to actually break ground and deliver homes on time. What the government needs to show is faster and more certain execution.
