Elon Musk, chief executive of SpaceX and Tesla, predicted that humanoid robots will reach "at least 1 billion units within 10 years" and will surpass human output.
Speaking remotely to a Group of 20 innovation ministers' meeting in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, on the 1st, Musk said the productivity of a single humanoid robot would be five times that of a human within a decade, according to CNBC and Nihon Keizai Shimbun. "Once there are 1 billion humanoids, their productivity will exceed that of all humanity combined," he said. Global humanoid shipments totaled 19,100 units in the first half of this year, more than triple the 5,100 units shipped in the same period last year. Chinese companies accounted for 97% of the total.
Musk also forecast that artificial intelligence would accelerate global economic growth. "AI will grow the global economy by 20% to 30%," he said, adding that the figure amounts to $20 trillion to $30 trillion a year. He said humans would find it impossible to compete with AI in software development next year, and that AI would be able to perform any task that does not require shaping atoms by hand. Citing Stockfish, the chess engine that easily defeats world champions, he said AI software would reach Stockfish-level quality at some point next year.
Musk pointed to power shortages as the main obstacle to AI adoption. "We expect a shortfall of about 15 gigawatts next year," he said, noting that electricity supply is falling far short of the pace of AI chip production.
