Scientists are warning that the deadly Himalayan flooding in Nepal could be repeated in South America's Andes, where rapidly melting glaciers are creating unstable lakes and weakening surrounding rock slopes. Argentina, Chile and Peru are all exposed to the risk of large-scale glacial lake outburst floods, according to the analysis.
Melting Glaciers Turn Lakes Into Time Bombs
Scientists and geologists have warned that rising temperatures in the Andes are driving rapid glacial retreat and increasing the risk of glacial lake outburst floods, or GLOFs, according to UPI and South American media outlets on the 1st.
When rock slopes or ice walls collapse into lakes formed by melting glaciers, they can generate massive waves that breach naturally formed dams. Such a breach can send enormous volumes of water and sediment down mountain valleys, threatening lives as well as drinking water and energy facilities.
Argentina has already experienced such an event. In November 2005, the Erizos Lake in San Juan Province burst, releasing more than 31 million cubic meters of water in just 67 minutes. The flood swept more than 250 kilometers, destroying roads and crops, but caused no deaths because the area was sparsely populated.
Juan Pablo Milana, a researcher at Argentina's National Scientific and Technical Research Council, told local outlet Infobae that what happened in Nepal has already happened in Argentina.
Patagonia is currently considered the main risk area in Argentina. In the tourist town of El Chaltén, there are concerns that a collapse of the unstable slopes of Solo Mountain could affect nearby Torre Lake.
Chile Has 26,000 Glaciers, Peru 528 At-Risk Lakes
Chile also faces a high risk of glacial lake outburst floods. The country has more than 26,000 glaciers, and in Patagonian regions such as Aysén and Magallanes, the rapid retreat of the northern and southern ice fields is increasing the number of unstable lakes held back by fragile natural dams.
Glaciers in the central region are relatively small, but the area faces significant risk because it is densely packed with hydroelectric plants, mines and facilities supplying drinking water to millions of people. Darío Ormeño, a geology professor at Chile's Andrés Bello University, told a local outlet that a disaster on the scale of Nepal's was unlikely but that landslides were a real risk.
Peru is considered the country facing the greatest risk of the three. According to Peru's National Institute for Research on Glaciers and Mountain Ecosystems, or INAIGEM, 528 lakes are at risk of overflowing, and 58 of them are classified as high-risk.
One prominent case is Palcacocha Lake in the Cordillera Blanca. Below the lake, which holds more than 17 million cubic meters of water, sits the city of Huaraz with a population of more than 120,000.
If large chunks of glacier destabilized by warming fall into the lake, they could generate a massive wave that breaks the natural dam. Experts warn that in such a case, floodwaters could reach downtown Huaraz in less than an hour. When the same lake overflowed in 1941, about one-third of the city was destroyed and thousands died.
South American countries are monitoring glaciers, lake levels and mountain slope movements using satellite imagery, radar and hydrological sensors. But experts warn that some existing disaster prevention facilities alone cannot cope with the growing risk, and that continued warming could make glacial lake outburst floods a threat not only to residents' lives but also to drinking water and energy infrastructure in major cities.
