The United States and Iran, which had put a ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU) into effect on June 18 (local time) and were conducting follow-up negotiations, have once again begun to clash over the Strait of Hormuz. Conflicts between the two countries, which had been calm around the funeral of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the CONCACAF World Cup, and the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States (Independence Day), appear to be intensifying again. In diplomatic circles, the interpretation is that as working-level negotiations reached a deadlock, both countries have staged shows of force immediately after major domestic events passed. Analysts say the strategy is for each nation to gain an upper hand in negotiations by demonstrating control over the Strait of Hormuz and applying military and economic pressure. Meanwhile, international oil prices, which had stabilized for a time, have surged again amid supply shortage concerns, triggering a chain reaction in bond yields, stock prices, and the value of the dollar.
Iranian Forces Attack Three Ships Including Mediator Qatar's Vessel in Hormuz Strait... Show of Naval Control Amid Stalled Follow-up Talks
On Monday, Reuters reported that a liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier struck by a missile from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday night could explode due to fire. This is the first time since the outbreak of the war that an LNG carrier belonging to Qatar, the mediator in the ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran, has been attacked. The stricken vessel, Al Rekayyat, is owned by Nakilat, held by Qatar's state-run QatarEnergy. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), part of the British Navy, also said that a tanker and an LNG carrier passing through the Strait of Hormuz, 15 kilometers east of Ras al-Lima in Oman, caught fire after being hit by unidentified projectiles.
On Monday, the US online outlet Axios also reported that Iranian forces fired at least two missiles at a merchant ship passing through the strait that day. According to US sources, both vessels sustained significant damage, but there were no casualties.
On the same day, in Oman's territorial waters, a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carrier believed to be the Liberian-flagged Al Marya received instructions from Iranian forces to change its course toward the Iranian coast as it tried to pass through the strait. The vessel is managed by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). Earlier, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which serves as the integrated command of Iran's military, warned on Wednesday that "all tankers and merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz must use the routes designated by Iran," and that "any deviation from the designated routes or disregard for navigation rules will immediately face a strong response."
Qatar identified Iran as being behind the ship attack and immediately protested. Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Iranian deputy ambassador in Qatar on Monday to deliver a letter of protest. Majed al-Ansari, spokesman for Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said, "This incident is an unacceptable attack on the security of international navigation and global energy supply, and a clear violation of international law," and urged Iran to "immediately cease acts that threaten regional security and maritime navigation." In response, according to Iran's state-run IRNA news agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said, after Qatar pointed to Iran as being behind the ship attack, that it was "a bewildering matter and contrary to the principle of good-neighborly relations," and demanded that "shipping companies in the region refrain from acting in violation of the MOU."
The US also took strong action. On the same day, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced that it was revoking the 60-day temporary general license issued on June 21 to permit the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian crude oil. OFAC explained that transactions in Iranian crude oil would be phased out and permitted only until the 17th.
US Reactivates Oil Sanctions and Launches Intense Airstrikes... Uncertainty Over Ceasefire Deal Grows Again
The US response also expanded militarily. On Monday, US Central Command posted on X (formerly Twitter), saying it had "launched a series of powerful airstrikes in response to the targeting and attacking of merchant ships carrying innocent civilians in international waters." It added that Iran "will pay a heavy price," noting that "Iran's attack is not only dangerous but also a clear violation of the ceasefire."
According to Iran's state-run IRIB broadcaster, six explosions were heard on Qeshm Island and seven in Sirik that day. Multiple explosions were also detected in the port city of Bandar Abbas. Reuters, citing Iranian media, reported that six projectiles fell in the area of the Taherui pier in Sirik.
According to AFP, the Iranian Foreign Ministry responded by saying it "sternly warns of the consequences of the US violation of the terms," and that it "will take resolute measures to protect national interests and national security." Regarding the US withdrawal of the sanctions waiver on Iranian crude oil sales, it also pushed back, saying it was "a measure that violates the MOU, and the US must bear responsibility for the consequences," and that it "will take all measures deemed necessary to defend the nation's interests and security."
Earlier, the US and Iran had also engaged in two days of military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz on June 26-27, triggered by Iran's attack on a tanker. Following Iran's tanker attack, the US carried out airstrikes on Iranian military facilities, and Iran attacked US military bases in neighboring Gulf states such as Kuwait and Bahrain. This came less than 10 days after they had put the ceasefire MOU into effect on the 18th of the same month and agreed to avoid armed conflict, thereby violating it. The two countries subsequently maintained the difficult momentum of negotiations, continuing indirect talks through a mediator in Doha, Qatar, earlier this month.
According to Reuters, as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz rose again, Saudi Arabia has begun reviewing plans to expand a bypass transport route that can send crude oil to the western Red Sea coast without passing through the strait. It is discussing with some neighboring countries, including Kuwait and Qatar, a plan to expand the capacity of the East-West pipeline, which transports crude oil from eastern oil fields to the Yanbu port on the western Red Sea coast, by 2 million barrels, from a maximum of 7 million barrels per day to 9 million barrels. This is because even after the US-Iran MOU agreement, the volume of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not recovered to pre-war levels. The Strait of Hormuz was originally a route through which about 20% of the world's crude oil traffic passed.
Conflict Erupts After Major Events Pass, Including 250th Anniversary of Founding, Khamenei's Funeral, and World Cup... Trump Says "US Should Take Greenland"
This clash between the US and Iran is drawing more attention as it coincides with a delicate moment in both countries' situations. As the US 250th anniversary of its founding on the 4th and the funeral of former Supreme Leader Khamenei from the 4th to the 9th passed, the two countries engaged in a war of nerves, and the clash was to some extent foreshadowed. President Donald Trump, even on the 6th during the funeral period for former Supreme Leader Khamenei, pressured Iran from the White House in Washington, D.C., saying, "We will make a deal, or we will finish the job," and "Finishing the job is not that difficult." He went on to stress, "We can bring down their bridges within an hour, and we can cut off their energy supply," and "They now have no money at all because we are giving them nothing at all." Iran, too, having waited more than four months to hold the funeral of former Supreme Leader Khamenei, who was killed in a US and Israeli airstrike on February 28, heightened anti-American sentiment among its people.
Coincidentally, the timing of the clash between the two countries also came right after the US was eliminated from the CONCACAF World Cup, which began on the 11th of last month. Although there is no direct causal relationship with the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, this means that a calculation to divert the attention of the American public outward may have at least partly influenced the two countries' choice of timing. The US was eliminated after a crushing 4-1 loss to Belgium in the round of 16 on the 6th. In the process, President Trump sparked controversy by directly requesting FIFA President Gianni Infantino to review the suspension imposed on player Folarin Balogun, who received a red card in the round of 32 match between the US and Bosnia and Herzegovina on the 2nd. In fact, following President Trump's phone call, FIFA on the 5th reversed the one-game suspension imposed on Balogun and notified the US Soccer Federation that its enforcement would be deferred for one year. The US's World Cup performance, to President Trump as well
