A strategic missile that China test-fired toward the Pacific on Saturday was the "Julang" (JL)-3, a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) capable of reaching all of the United States, according to analysts.
Global Times, a state-run media outlet affiliated with the People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, cited Chinese military expert Song Zhongping as saying the missile launched that day "is very likely the JL-3." Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, also told The New York Times that the Chinese military most likely tested the JL-3.
The Chinese military announced that a naval strategic nuclear submarine successfully launched one "submarine-launched strategic missile" carrying a training dummy warhead into international waters of the Pacific at 12:01 p.m. local time that day. The Chinese military did not disclose the specifications of the missile.
The JL-3, China's third-generation SLBM, has a range of more than 10,000 kilometers, putting most areas of the globe, including the U.S. mainland, within its reach. An SLBM launched from a submarine, which is difficult to detect once submerged, is far more threatening than nuclear weapons launched from the ground or air.
China unveiled the JL-3 at a military parade in September last year.
Song said, "The third-generation SLBM JL-3, independently developed by our country (China), has already become a pivotal capability in the sea-based nuclear deterrence system." He explained that, as the missile has already completed various tests including high-trajectory and low-trajectory flights, there was a need to fully verify the ballistic performance and combat reliability of the entire weapons system.
Zhang Junshe, another Chinese military expert, told Global Times that the submarine used in this test launch was likely a Type 094 or an improved variant, and that the possibility of it being a more recently commissioned advanced strategic nuclear submarine could not be ruled out. Zhang noted that the active-duty nuclear submarines disclosed by the Chinese military include the Type 092, Type 094, the improved Type 094, and follow-on models, and that footage aired by China Central Television (CCTV) ahead of last year's Army Day (Aug. 1) showed a Type 094 strategic nuclear submarine. He added, "According to our country's conventions for disclosing equipment, the equipment authorities reveal is not the most advanced active-duty model, and it usually means that next-generation equipment has already been deployed."
This test launch was also the first strategic missile test aimed at the Pacific in one year and 10 months since an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch in September 2024. The Chinese military previously announced that it had test-fired an ICBM into international waters of the Pacific on Sept. 25, 2024. It marked the first time in 44 years, since the "Dongfeng" (DF)-5 in 1980, that China had launched an ICBM toward the Pacific. The Chinese military released photos the day after the launch, and the missile in the images was presumed to be the "Dongfeng-31 AG," which is capable of striking the U.S. mainland. Song told Global Times, "The successful launch of this submarine-launched strategic missile echoes the ground-based (land-launched) ICBM test our country conducted in the South Pacific two years ago." He assessed, "From the test launch of the new ground-based ICBM to the test launch of the new submarine-launched strategic missile, these two strategic strike capabilities are interconnected and have significantly strengthened the overall deterrent effect of our country's 'triad' strategic nuclear capabilities."
The "nuclear triad" is a concept referring to a nation possessing ICBMs, SLBMs, and strategic bombers simultaneously. It also means having the capability to launch nuclear retaliation even if hit by a first nuclear strike, through the three means of nuclear attack.
Lewis assessed that, judging from this test launch, China is likely to accelerate its test launches of nuclear-capable weapons over the coming years. Citing the advancement of China's new nuclear-capable missile forces, he said the launch "suggests that a new era of testing has arrived in which all systems can openly show off their performance."
This is interpreted as a signal that China has moved away from its policy of "taoguang yanghui" (hiding one's strength and biding one's time) in diplomatic and military policy, and has begun to fully pursue military ascendancy, driven by confidence that it has joined the ranks of great powers. Lewis said, "Historically, China has conducted fewer ICBM tests than other countries," and analyzed, "The reason was political, but now that political dynamic has changed, and it appears to be adopting an approach of testing more." He noted that, unlike in the past when China refrained from long-range missile tests out of concern over backlash from major powers including the United States, it is now willing to bear the political costs of ICBM launches.
