Growing expectations for a special dividend from Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) are lifting brokerage views on dividend beneficiaries within the Samsung Group. For Samsung C&T (028260.KS), the possibility of re-distributing dividends received from Samsung Electronics and Samsung Life Insurance (032830.KS) was cited as grounds for raising the target price, while for Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810.KS), it was the value of its Samsung Electronics stake and room to expand shareholder returns.
On Friday, DS Investment & Securities maintained a "buy" rating on Samsung C&T and raised its target price to 620,000 won from 380,000 won. The brokerage saw upside potential of 27.7 percent against Thursday's closing price of 485,500 won. The move reflected that the structure under which Samsung C&T would re-distribute dividends to shareholders has become clearer should Samsung Electronics' large-scale dividend materialize.
DS Investment & Securities projected that Samsung C&T would re-distribute 60 to 70 percent of the dividend income it receives from affiliates, including Samsung Electronics and Samsung Life Insurance, between 2026 and 2028. The structure guarantees a minimum dividend per share (DPS) of 2,500 won and pays up to 70 percent of Samsung Electronics' special dividend to shareholders. Given that Samsung Life Insurance is Samsung Electronics' largest shareholder, there is also an indirect path through which the effect of Samsung Electronics' expanded dividend flows into Samsung C&T via Samsung Life Insurance.
As a result, Samsung C&T's DPS was estimated to grow from 2,800 won this year to 23,050 won in 2026 and 41,030 won in 2027. The dividend yields are estimated at 4.8 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively. DS Investment & Securities said Samsung C&T's total received dividends, combining direct dividends from Samsung Electronics and indirect dividends from Samsung Life Insurance, would reach 4.76 trillion won in 2026 and 8.93 trillion won in 2027.
Sangsangin Securities also raised its target price for Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance to 800,000 won from 600,000 won the same day. It maintained a "buy" rating. The upside potential against Thursday's closing price of 700,000 won is 14.3 percent. Sangsangin Securities applied a target price-to-book ratio (PBR) of 1.18 times to its estimated 2026 book value per share (BPS) of 676,788 won, reflecting the rise in the value of its holdings.
Sangsangin Securities forecast Samsung Fire's consolidated controlling net profit for this year at 2.227 trillion won, up 10.3 percent from a year earlier. It said insurance profit would improve from the second half as the effects of the eight-week rule for outpatient care and the incorporation of manual therapy into the managed benefit system are reflected. It estimated Canopius equity-method profit at about 220 billion won annually and Samsung Electronics dividend income at about 33 billion won per quarter.
The common denominator for the two companies is shareholder returns. For Samsung C&T, the structure under which Samsung Electronics' expanded dividend leads to direct cash inflows and re-distribution stood out, while for Samsung Fire, its target of a 50 percent shareholder return ratio by 2028 was assessed as a premium factor. Sangsangin Securities expected Samsung Fire's DPS this year at 24,000 won, up about 23 percent from a year earlier. Kim Soo-hyun, a researcher at DS Investment & Securities, said of Samsung C&T, "As the market seeks alpha heading into the second half, a clear dividend policy will emerge as a good option."
