Won Breaks 1,500 Mark as Authorities Exhaust Defense Options

*Editor's Note: 'AI PRISM' (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an "artificial intelligence (AI)-based customized news recommendation and summary service" developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six customized news items for each reader type.

1. National Pension Mobilized in Full for FX Defense to No Avail; Few Cards Left to Play

- Key Summary: As the won-dollar exchange rate surged to around 1,560 won, foreign exchange authorities have hit an impasse. The government raised the National Pension Service's currency hedge ratio from 10% to 15%, generating a dollar supply effect worth tens of trillions of won in the foreign exchange market. However, foreigners have net-sold 115.682 trillion won worth of shares on the KOSPI this year, overwhelming dollar demand. MUFG estimated the impact of the 5-percentage-point increase in the strategic currency hedge ratio at 30 trillion won. While a further increase in the currency hedge ratio is cited as the only remaining response card, the prevailing assessment is that the political burden of once again injecting citizens' retirement funds into the foreign exchange market is significant.

2. OpenAI Says "Chatbot Era Is Over," Bets on 'Super App' Transformation

- Key Summary: OpenAI has completely overhauled ChatGPT into a super app combined with its AI coding agent Codex, launching a counterattack against Anthropic in the AI agent market. The core is a shift in revenue structure, with a strategy to move away from a chatbot model centered on free users and raise the share of paying corporate clients from the current 40% to 50% by year-end. Integration with partner apps such as Canva and Booking.com will also be strengthened, with the ChatGPT website and mobile app overhaul beginning within weeks. Jenny Xiao of Leonis Capital analyzed that both OpenAI and Anthropic are converging on monetization strategies ahead of their IPOs.

3. Despite Semiconductor Boom, Korea's Potential Growth Rate Warned to Break Below 1.5% for First Time

- Key Summary: According to the OECD's June forecast, Korea's potential growth rate is projected to decline from 1.85% last year to 1.66% this year and 1.52% next year, falling to 1.46% in the fourth quarter of next year. The fact that the OECD raised its growth forecast for Korea this year from 1.7% to 2.6%, a 0.9-percentage-point increase, while lowering its potential growth forecast is interpreted to mean that the semiconductor boom is not translating into improvement in structural growth potential. A former senior government official stressed that "the key is to improve the efficiency of fiscal spending and create a virtuous cycle in which the excess profits generated by AI diffusion lead to R&D and capital investment."

4. Liao Chun-chih, President of Taiwan's Academia Sinica: "Korean Executives Live on Borrowed Time; Hard to Invest in Technology with a Long-Term View"

- Key Summary: Liao Chun-chih, president of Taiwan's Academia Sinica, cited a long-term talent strategy through the academician system and a fast decision-making ecosystem centered on mid-sized and small enterprises as the core driving forces behind Taiwan's semiconductor power. Addressing Korea, he pointed out that "a culture focused on short-term results, such as hiring senior corporate executives on three-year short-term contracts, is a factor making both Korea and Taiwan less creative than the West." Taiwan's AI Academy was launched in 2018 through cooperation between academia and industry after the AlphaGo shock of 2016, and has produced more than 7,500 cumulative graduates to date. President Liao said, "Under the principle of looking earlier and farther, we are devising response strategies for next-generation fields such as agentic AI, physical AI, and quantum computers."

5. Said to End in Four Weeks, the War Reaches 100 Days...Trump Says "It Will Take Some Time"

- Key Summary: As the war between the U.S.-Israel and Iran, which broke out on February 28, reached its 100th day, Iran has suffered casualties of 3,468 dead and more than 26,500 injured. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has sharply reduced vessel traffic through the strait from about 100 ships to an average of 3 per day, while WTI crude oil prices have surged about 37% from $67.02 per barrel just before the war to $90.54. Rystad Energy estimated that the cost of restoring Middle East energy infrastructure could reach up to $58 billion (about 90 trillion won). Analysts note that, with core objectives such as regime change and the destruction of nuclear weapons unmet and the November midterm elections approaching, pressure on the Trump administration to negotiate is mounting.

6. Reverse Direct Purchases Rise Again Amid High Exchange Rate; Surpass 1 Trillion Won for First Time in 4.5 Years

- Key Summary: Online overseas direct sales (reverse direct purchases) reached 1.0599 trillion won in the first quarter of this year, up 24% from a year earlier, surpassing the 1 trillion won mark again for the first time in four years and six months since the third quarter of 2021. As the won-dollar exchange rate rose from the low 1,300 won range in June last year to around 1,560 won now, the dollar-denominated prices of Korean products have fallen, boosting price competitiveness. In addition, sellers can expect foreign exchange gains when converting dollar earnings into won. The destinations for reverse direct purchases have also diversified, with China's share falling from 61% to 35%, while the shares of the U.S. and Japan expanded to 23% and 24%, respectively. Gmarket is selling through integration with Lazada, while 11st is cooperating with JD.com, reflecting a broader trend across the e-commerce industry of nurturing reverse direct purchases as a key growth engine.