Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) has reclaimed second place in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market in the third quarter while closing the gap with leader SK hynix (000660.KS) to just 1 percentage point in overall DRAM market share.
After struggling with yield stabilization issues in the first half, Samsung's turnaround came as its fifth-generation HBM3E supply got on track, driving an earnings rebound. The three major memory chipmakers have now entered a "capacity expansion war," committing tens to hundreds of trillions of won in capital expenditure to meet surging demand.
According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, Samsung's global HBM market share by revenue reached 22% in the third quarter, up 7 percentage points from 15% in the previous quarter. Micron recorded 21% in the same period, surrendering second place to Samsung and falling to third. SK hynix maintained the top spot with 57%, though its dominance weakened compared to 64% in the previous quarter.
Samsung overcame the setback of declining exports to China by ramping up shipments of 8-layer and 12-layer HBM3E products starting in the third quarter, recovering its market position.
Samsung's pursuit is equally fierce in the overall DRAM market. By third-quarter revenue, SK hynix held the top spot with 34% market share, with Samsung close behind at 33%. The gap between the two stands at just 1 percentage point.
SK hynix overtook Samsung in DRAM revenue for the first time in the first quarter of this year. Samsung's fall to second place after 33 years atop the memory market was an unprecedented event in semiconductor history. Buoyed by surging prices of legacy memory chips and server replacement demand, Samsung raised its share from 32% in the second quarter to 33% in the third quarter, putting the top spot back within reach. Micron recorded 26% for third place.
The DRAM market grew 26% quarter-on-quarter as demand for high-capacity products for artificial intelligence servers increased alongside rising prices.
Micron Pours $20B to Accelerate Idaho Fab
Industry observers are focused less on current market share shifts than on the capacity expansion race among the three companies targeting 2027-28, when the next-generation HBM4 and AI accelerator markets are expected to fully bloom.
Micron is taking the most aggressive stance. In its earnings announcement on December 17, the company said it would raise its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure from $18 billion to $20 billion (approximately 28 trillion won), up 45% from last year's $13.8 billion. Micron faces the challenge of rapidly scaling up its HBM production capacity, currently at about 30% of Samsung and SK hynix's levels.
Micron is accelerating new fab timelines through its investment. The company moved up the start of operations at its Boise, Idaho fab from the second half of 2027 to mid-2027 for first wafer shipments. Its New York fab will break ground early next year, targeting supply after 2030.
The company is also speeding up its Asian footprint. It plans to invest 1.5 trillion yen in its Hiroshima, Japan plant to begin mass production of next-generation HBM from 2028, with up to 500 billion yen (approximately 4.7 trillion won) in support from the Japanese government reducing the cost burden. Production of seventh-generation HBM4E is likely at this facility. Packaging plants in India and Singapore will also begin full operations next year, strengthening back-end capabilities.
Samsung Bets on Pyeongtaek, SK hynix on Yongin
Samsung and SK hynix are also betting everything on building production systems by 2027-28. Both companies are estimated to pour at least 100 trillion won each into capacity expansion over the next three years.
Samsung is accelerating construction of its cutting-edge memory production base by coordinating schedules for its Pyeongtaek P4 and P5 plants. Building P5 alone, which broke ground in November, requires 60 trillion won in investment. P5 is expected to begin operations in 2028. The Yongin National Semiconductor Industrial Complex is scheduled to break ground on its first fab by the end of 2026. A total of six fabs will be built at the Yongin complex, with 360 trillion won in planned investment.
SK hynix will begin early operations at its Cheongju M15X plant in the first half of next year to meet surging HBM demand. The first fab at its Yongin semiconductor cluster is scheduled for completion in May 2027, with approximately 110 trillion won invested in the first fab alone. A total of 600 trillion won (approximately $430 billion) will be invested in the Yongin cluster for four fabs. Each fab is six times the size of the existing Cheongju M15X plant. When the Yongin cluster—equivalent to 24 M15X plants—is fully operational in 2050, SK hynix's production capacity will increase dramatically.
SK hynix plans to maintain technology leadership in the HBM4 market by strengthening its partnership with Taiwan's TSMC.
The memory industry expects "memory shortage" conditions to persist until major production facilities come online in 2027-28. While HBM content per AI model is more than doubling annually due to advancing AI capabilities, building clean rooms and installing equipment requires at least two years.
Micron said that while additional clean room capacity is essential to meet rising HBM demand, the long construction timeline means the supply-demand imbalance will continue beyond 2026.
*"Gap World" is a column where reporter Seo Jong-gap explores the gaps in news during the era of technology hegemony competition. Get the key insights and outlook on cutting-edge technology and semiconductor issues in "Gap World."*
