Celltrion (068270.KS) is expected to see a step-up in profitability as its new biosimilar lineup begins contributing meaningfully to earnings, according to a forecast. Rising sales of high-margin products such as Remsima SC and Omlyclo have improved the product mix, while US launches and indication expansions are expected to sustain growth momentum in the second half, the analysis said.
On Sunday, IBK Investment & Securities estimated Celltrion's second-quarter consolidated revenue at 1.3 trillion won and operating profit at 430 billion won. These figures exceed market consensus by 4.5% and 7.3%, respectively. The operating profit margin was projected at 33.1%, up 7.9 percentage points from the same period a year earlier.
The brokerage cited the expansion of new biosimilar products as the key driver of the earnings improvement. As the revenue share of new products—including the autoimmune disease treatment Remsima SC and Omlyclo, a treatment for allergic asthma and chronic idiopathic urticaria—surpassed 60%, the gross profit margin was estimated to have improved from 56.6% last year to around 63% this year. Adding to this were the effects of a higher won-dollar exchange rate and operating leverage from rising sales, which widened the increase in operating profit, the analysis said.
IBK Investment & Securities expected the growth momentum to continue in the second half. As the company exceeded its operating profit guidance in the second quarter following the first quarter, the likelihood of achieving its annual earnings targets has risen, the brokerage judged.
In particular, Steqeyma is set to add an ulcerative colitis indication in Europe, while Omlyclo and Eydenzelt are preparing for US launches. As indication expansions for new items coincide with an increase in the number of countries where they are launched, their share of the product portfolio is expected to gradually grow.
The biosimilar market environment was also assessed as favorable. Regulatory easing to improve patient access is underway, centered on the US, and patent expirations for blockbuster biopharmaceuticals continue. As a result, the biosimilar market size in 2030 is projected to expand more than threefold from this year.
"As Celltrion has already established direct-sales systems in Europe and the US, it has a structure that allows it to directly benefit from market expansion," said Jung Yi-soo, a researcher at IBK Investment & Securities. "The more its product portfolio grows, the higher the utilization of its existing sales network becomes, and we forecast that profitability will continue to improve based on its own production capacity and direct-sales system."
