The Diplomacy Is Ahead of the Supply Chains. Closing That Gap Is the Work

■Sarah Ladislaw is the Founding Director of the New Energy Industrial Strategy (NEIS) Center, which supports the development of advanced energy systems that underpin competitive economies and create diversified clean energy markets.

Opinion|
| Updated 2026.07.08. 14:21:47
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By The Seoul Economic Daily (Commentary)
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null - Seoul Economic Daily Opinion News from South Korea

Few countries have more to contribute to the diversification of global clean energy supply chains than Korea — and few have more at stake in getting that effort right. LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and SK On are among the world's most capable battery manufacturers, supplying cells and cathodes to US and European customers with no comparable alternative. Hyosung Heavy, HD Hyundai Electric, and LS Electric secured over $5 billion in new grid infrastructure orders in Q1 2026 alone — driven by AI data centre buildout and aging US transmission networks — with Hyosung Heavy supplying roughly half of all 765 kV ultra-high-voltage transformers on US grids. Korea's nuclear export track record, with four operating APR-1400 reactors at the UAE's Barakah plant, makes it one of the few credible non-Russian reactor construction alternatives globally. These capabilities matter because batteries, EVs, solar, wind, and nuclear are not just energy technologies — they are the power, storage, and conversion infrastructure that AI, robotics, and advanced computing depend on. Countries that build competitive positions here are positioning themselves at the base of the industries that will define the next phase of the global economy. President Lee Jae Myung's April visits to India and Vietnam and his current Europe tour — Belgium, Italy, and this week's G7 in Évian — reflect a recognition shared across capitals around the world: that energy security, supply chain resilience, and industrial competitiveness are inseparable, and that no country can advance them alone.

The complication is that the broader supply chain picture remains heavily concentrated despite Korea's strengths. China controls approximately 85 percent of solar panel supply chains, 84 percent of battery cell production, and 74 percent of wind nacelle manufacturing. The IEA's Energy Technology Perspectives 2026 finds that every major supply chain has at least one upstream stage where less than a quarter of global demand could be met without the largest single supplier — and nearly half of Korea's rare earth minerals come from that same source. Battery cell manufacturing outside the dominant supplier is projected to grow from 16 percent of global capacity today to 29 to 35 percent by 2030, driven by Korean firms in Europe and North America, new capacity in India and Southeast Asia, and Canada's emerging battery materials hub. The IEA finds some developing countries in Southeast Asia and the Middle East could be cost-competitive in specific manufacturing stages. These are real developments — but partial, unevenly financed, and still dependent on the upstream inputs they were meant to replace. The NEIS Center, which works with governments and industry across Korea, Japan, India, the United States, and Europe on clean energy industrial strategy, recognizes the core challenge as building industries that are both competitive and resilient — harder than either objective alone.

The diplomatic architecture supporting that effort has deepened. Korea's April summits with India and Indonesia produced agreements on critical minerals, energy, and AI. Vietnam energy supply chain discussions, the India-EU Free Trade Agreement signed in January 2026, and the US-led Pax Silica initiative — now encompassing more than fifteen countries including Korea, with its first Economic Security Zone taking shape in the Philippines' Luzon Corridor — all signal a shift from frameworks toward actual industrial geography. These arrangements matter. But diplomatic architecture without strong domestic industrial policy — sustained investment incentives, technology partnerships, trade protection for new entrants — does not by itself produce competitive industries. The NEIS Center works with partners across these relationships to convert political commitments into the policy, investment and trade frameworks that attract private capital at scale.

The delivery gap is real and shows up across every country in this network. The US saw $35 billion in clean energy projects cancelled or downsized in 2025 as policy uncertainty eroded investor confidence — including SK On's $2.8 billion battery plant in Tennessee, a reminder that Korean firms are directly exposed to partners' policy shifts. The EU spent €27 billion on batteries in 2024, with 87 percent sourced from China, even as Northvolt — once Europe's flagship manufacturer — collapsed into bankruptcy in March 2025. Canada wrote off $270 million after its flagship Quebec gigafactory never broke ground. Australia cut AU$1.3 billion in clean energy funding in 2026. Korea faces its own structural version: despite world-leading cell and cathode capabilities, its battery firms remain dependent on Chinese anode materials and precursor inputs. The pattern is consistent — political ambition is outrunning the sustained commitments needed to make diversification durable.

What changes that pattern is specific commercial and policy arrangements backed by strong industrial strategy: Korean battery technology know how and grid infrastructure expertise combined with Indian manufacturing scale and Australian and Canadian critical minerals to anchor supply chains none could build alone; Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern manufacturing capacity integrated rather than marginalised; developing country partners brought in with financing and technology transfer terms that make participation viable. Korea's industrial strengths are most valuable when embedded in a coordinated network. Whether the investments and partnerships that follow the current round of summitry are specific and sustained enough to build something genuinely competitive is the open question — and the only true path to the energy security and strategic advantage Korea and its partners are seeking.

Original reporting by The Seoul Economic Daily (Commentary) for Seoul Economic Daily.

AI-translated from Korean. Quotes from foreign sources are based on Korean-language reports and may not reflect exact original wording.

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