The era of a civilian defense minister, the first in 64 years, ended after little more than a year as a former elite four-star general from the Korea Military Academy took over as the new head of the 500,000-strong armed forces. Less than two years after former Minister Kim Yong-hyun, who led the Dec. 3 martial law declaration with a group centered on KMA graduates, another KMA graduate has been appointed defense minister, drawing public attention.
Kang Shin-chul, who had served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia, was sworn in as the 52nd defense minister on Sept. 22. In giving up the symbolism of a civilian defense minister and instead installing a retired four-star general from the KMA, the government appears to be seeking to shore up military morale and push through a stack of core defense tasks without friction, including the integration of the Army, Navy and Air Force academies and the transfer of wartime operational control.
The biggest question raised by the new minister's inauguration is how the military leadership will be reshuffled, given that the Lee Jae-myung administration, which took office under the banner of "ending the insurrection," has maintained its policy of excluding KMA graduates even as it named a KMA graduate as defense minister. Inside and outside the military, some expect the second-half general officer reshuffle to slip from October to December because of the volume of pending issues.
The talk of a leadership shake-up stems from the current policy of sidelining KMA graduates. Kang Geon-jak, first deputy director of the National Security Office who oversees defense and security policy, graduated from the KMA's 45th class, one year ahead of Minister Kang Shin-chul, from the 46th class. On top of that, Army Chief of Staff Kim Kyu-ha is from the 47th class, one year behind the minister, raising the possibility that the Army chief post will go to a non-KMA officer as a check on the academy's influence.
There are also calls to replace the leadership of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, both to strengthen operational expertise for the return of wartime operational control and in response to a series of incidents, including an empty-rifle guard duty lapse on the front line, a near-shootdown of a U.S. drone mistaken for a hostile aircraft, and a landmine explosion. With the chances also rising that a Marine Corps officer will be promoted to four-star rank in line with the campaign pledge to shift toward a "quasi-four-service" structure, this round of general officer appointments has become a focus of intense interest.
The vice minister's post is the first item of interest. Minister Kang Shin-chul and Vice Minister Lee Doo-hee are classmates from the KMA's 46th class. By military custom, an officer steps aside when a classmate or junior takes a senior post. But with core defense tasks piling up, including the academy integration and the return of wartime operational control, Lee is expected to remain for some time, jointly steering the entire force as one half of the ministry's two-man team.
Kang came up through the infantry and Lee through the artillery, and although their branches differ, both are elite generals from operational career tracks. Lee retired as a lieutenant general. As KMA classmates, the two have long been close, and their working relationship and policy communication are said to be smooth. This is reportedly only the second time a defense minister and vice minister have been KMA classmates, after Minister Kim Dong-jin and Vice Minister Lee Jung-rin.
Second-Half General Officer Reshuffle Widely Expected to Slip to December
In some ways the sharpest focus falls on whether the Army chief of staff will be replaced. With KMA graduates occupying every key defense and security post, including the National Security Office, the Defense Ministry and Army headquarters, the prevailing view is that replacing the Army chief is unavoidable given the administration's policy of favoring officers from outside the Army and outside the KMA. If a non-KMA officer is chosen, it would be the first such appointment in about four years, since former Army Chief of Staff Nam Yeong-shin under the Moon Jae-in administration.
Candidates for a non-KMA Army chief include Gen. Lee Sang-ryeol, commander of the Ground Operations Command and a graduate of the 31st ROTC class; Gen. Kim Ho-bok, commander of the Second Operations Command and a graduate of the 27th class of the Korea Army Academy at Yeongcheon; Lt. Gen. Choi Jang-sik, Army vice chief of staff and a graduate of the 30th ROTC class; Lt. Gen. Kwon Dae-won, JCS vice chairman and a graduate of the 30th ROTC class; and Lt. Gen. Park Seong-je, commander of the Army Special Warfare Command and a graduate of the 17th class of the Officer Candidate School. Picking Lt. Gen. Kim Jong-mok, commander of the Army's Third Corps and a graduate of the 32nd ROTC class, would allow for a sweeping generational change.
If a non-KMA officer is selected as Army chief, the JCS chairmanship could go to a KMA graduate. Chairmen have already come from the Navy and the Air Force at four-star rank, so it would be the Army's turn. Above all, the need for an Army general with deep expertise in front-line operations and strategy is growing amid the controversy over North Korea's border fortification work and the push to regain wartime operational control.
If an Army general takes the JCS chairmanship, candidates include Gen. Kim Seong-min, deputy commander of the Combined Forces Command, who as the military's most senior figure in dealings with Washington is a policy and strategy specialist with fluent English, and Gen. Kim Kyu-ha, the Army chief of staff, who could be tapped for a second posting. Non-KMA officers could also be named, leaving Ground Operations Commander Lee Sang-ryeol and Second Operations Commander Kim Ho-bok in contention.
Some observers say a change at the JCS chairmanship would raise the chances of the Marine Corps commandant being promoted to four-star rank. Once promoted, a Marine Corps commandant could move into one of three posts: JCS chairman, JCS vice chairman or deputy commander of the Combined Forces Command. Because the current JCS chairman is from the Air Force, the vice chairman's post as deputy commander must go to the Army, which blocks a four-star Marine officer from taking it.
If the chairmanship goes to the Army, however, a Marine officer could be named vice chairman. And if Kim Seong-min moves from the Combined Forces Command deputy post, there is room for a Marine to be tapped for that slot as well, requiring only a decision by the president as commander in chief. The leading candidate for promotion to four-star rank is Marine Corps Commandant Joo Il-seok, a graduate of the Korea Naval Academy's 46th class, who has steered the Marine Corps smoothly in line with the shift toward a "quasi-four-service" structure.
The military has seven four-star generals and 32 lieutenant generals among posts at three-star rank or above. The Army accounts for 21 of the officers at lieutenant general or above, and 14 of them, more than 65%, are KMA graduates. Including the defense minister and vice minister, the share of KMA graduates in the military leadership rises further. The Navy has six officers at lieutenant general or above, the Air Force eight and the Marine Corps one. The lieutenant general posts of Strategic Command commander, Korea National Defense University president and Army Training and Doctrine Command commander are being filled on an acting basis.
