With internal rifts surfacing simultaneously in both the ruling and opposition camps, attention to the next presidential race is rising relatively early. Although considerable time remains before the next presidential election, factional conflicts within both camps are bringing greater prominence to potential contenders who each rest on a distinct base of support. Analysts also point to President Lee Jae-myung's wavering approval ratings early in his term and the absence of a firmly established front-runner in either camp as factors behind this trend.
Kim Min-seok Stands Out as Cho Kuk and Jung Chung-rae Close In
Within the broader ruling camp, the contender drawing the most attention at present is Kim Min-seok, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea. After serving as the first prime minister of the Lee Jae-myung administration, he ran in the Aug. 17 party convention and won the leadership after a fierce contest with former leader Jung Chung-rae. Moving directly from prime minister to leader of the governing party, he is seen as having secured experience and an organizational base in both the party and the government.
While he has gained political stature as leader of the governing party, he is not free from questions of responsibility for the recent decline in President Lee's approval ratings. During the leadership race, Kim pledged to raise the party's approval rating by 10 percentage points within 100 days of taking office, but roughly 40 days in, the party's ratings in various polls remain flat.
Instead, some Democratic Party supporters unhappy with the president's political course appear to be throwing their weight behind rival contenders. The most prominent challengers in the broader ruling camp are Cho Kuk, head of the Rebuilding Korea Party's innovation policy institute, and former leader Jung. Cho, who served as justice minister under the Moon Jae-in administration, has recently clashed directly with the Democratic Party and Kim, expanding his own political space. His strength lies in a solid base among supporters of former President Moon. Although he stepped down as party leader, he has maintained his presence in the ruling camp through friction over a merger or alliance between the Democratic Party and his party and through remarks on issues such as prosecution reform. He has cast himself as the ruling camp's "red team," which observers read as a strategy of keeping some distance from the ruling mainstream without breaking fully with the Democratic Party. His third-place finish in the June 3 National Assembly by-election in Pyeongtaek B, Gyeonggi Province, and his continued absence from the legislature are cited as limitations.
Former leader Jung has also confirmed an independent base of support that is hard to ignore. Jung describes himself as aligned with the president, but political circles view him as belonging to the non-Lee wing. Even while trading sharp attacks with Kim, who drew overwhelming backing from the pro-Lee faction during the convention, Jung finished with 45.92% of the vote, confirming a firm base within the party. In the regional voting round covering Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang Province, he took 46.65% and beat Kim, showing formidable support centered on hardline party members.
Gyeonggi Governor Choo Mi-ae has also emerged as another pole within the ruling camp, having clashed repeatedly with President Lee and Kim in recent weeks.
Independent Han Dong-hoon Leads Conservative Field as Oh Faces Legal Risk
In the opposition camp, the recent rise of independent lawmaker Han Dong-hoon stands out. Han entered the National Assembly by running as an independent in the June 3 by-election in Busan's Buk-gap district, pulling off an upset over the Democratic Party and People Power Party candidates. Winning even after talks on a unified candidacy with the People Power Party collapsed demonstrated his own base of support within the conservative camp.
The recent failure of justice minister nominee Kim Seung-won to win confirmation further raised Han's profile. Han led the opposition's vetting offensive, raising allegations about the nominee day after day. Having gained stature, Han is making no effort to conceal his interest in the next presidential race. He has repeatedly posted polling results on next-in-line contenders to his Facebook account, displaying his standing to supporters.
Jang Dong-hyuk, leader of the main opposition People Power Party, has looked comparatively stalled of late. Since taking office he has focused on consolidating the party around hardline supporters and on confronting the government, but both inside and outside the party he is seen as still facing the task of broadening his appeal. In a Gallup Korea survey of 1,002 adults nationwide conducted by telephone interviewers from the 15th to the 17th, 21% rated Jang's performance positively and 61% negatively. Among People Power Party supporters, positive ratings came to only 39%. He has escalated outdoor protests, including a large-scale rally at the National Assembly billed as a public report on the Lee Jae-myung government's failures ahead of the Chuseok holiday, but some lawmakers in the party's parliamentary ranks and senior members have voiced concern that the focus should be on the parliamentary audit of government agencies and on livelihood issues.
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who emerged as a leading contender after winning a fifth term in the June 3 local elections, now faces the variable of legal risk. In July, Oh was fined 10 million won in a first-instance ruling on a political funds law violation tied to allegations that polling costs linked to Myung Tae-kyun were paid on his behalf. Because a final ruling to that effect would cost him the mayoralty, political uncertainty has grown.
Polls Put Han Dong-hoon, Kim Min-seok, Oh Se-hoon, Jang Dong-hyuk and Cho Kuk in That Order
It is still early to discuss the presidential election, but recent polling confirms that potential contenders in both camps are rapidly differentiating.
In a survey on suitability for the next presidency conducted by Zoa C&I for Straight News from the 19th to the 21st among 2,007 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide, Han recorded 18.1% and Kim 14.8%. They were followed by Oh at 12.6%, Jang at 11.9%, Cho at 8.6%, Jung at 6.7%, Democratic Party lawmaker Song Young-gil at 5.5%, former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum at 3.7% and Reform Party lawmaker Lee Jun-seok at 2.5%. In the previous survey, Kim stood at 16.0%, Han at 15.4%, and Jang and Oh at 14.2% each. It is the first time Han has posted the highest figure in this survey.
Broken down by party preference, the internal dynamics of each camp emerge more clearly. Among Democratic Party supporters, Kim led with 30.5%, followed by Cho at 14.6%, Jung at 11.1% and Song at 10.8%. Kim is ahead, but a considerable share of support is dispersed to Cho and Jung.
Among People Power Party supporters, Han, who sits outside the party, recorded 29.2%, competing within the margin of error with Jang at 26.7% and Oh at 24.0%. In the previous survey the order was Jang at 30.1%, Oh at 26.2% and Han at 24.5%, but Han's share rose by 4.7 percentage points this time. Among unaffiliated voters in particular, Han posted 27.0%, ahead of Oh at 10.1%, Kim at 8.9% and Jang at 5.8%.
Still, considerable time remains before the next presidential election, and the political standing of those currently mentioned, their legal risks and the internal power dynamics of their parties all remain fluid. The Zoa C&I survey was conducted using an automated response system with 100% mobile random digit dialing, with a response rate of 4.1% and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Further details are available on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.
