WASHINGTON — A former commander of U.S. Forces Korea said meeting the conditions for the transfer of wartime operational control is what matters and that pursuing the handover on a fixed timeline is dangerous. He also voiced concern that there is ample room for North Korea to miscalculate.
Speaking on a podcast hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S. think tank, on the 5th, former USFK Commander Robert Abrams (pictured) said the conditions-based transition plan was designed to strengthen both combined defense and deterrence. "When the conditions are met, you will have an incredibly strong combined military posture and deterrence," he said.
Abrams, who led USFK from November 2018 to July 2021, said a time-based plan fundamentally increases risk because operational shortfalls remain in the South Korean military. "If you arbitrarily set a timeline and several key military capabilities are not in place, that becomes a gap, and it actually weakens deterrence and defense against North Korea," he said.
Current USFK Commander Xavier Brunson told a U.S. congressional hearing last year that the first quarter of 2029 was the target date for meeting the conditions for the transfer. The South Korean government, by contrast, has internally concluded that the handover could be completed as early as next year or the year after. Abrams' remarks are seen as consistent with the position of U.S. military authorities that the conditions for the transfer must be met.
Abrams said the South Korean government had claimed it met 92% of the conditions for the transfer in 2020. "That means it has been fully achieved, and let me be clear, that is not true. At the time, that figure was far short of 92%," he said. He added that he remains relatively confident that many shortfalls persist.
Abrams also raised the possibility of a future transfer of wartime operational control and a drawdown of U.S. troops in Korea, and the risk of North Korean miscalculation that could follow. "The biggest causes of a resumption of hostilities are the three 'mis' — misunderstanding, miscalculation and mistake," he said. "Right now I believe there is ample room for North Korea to potentially misunderstand or miscalculate."
Abrams stressed that the military should help reduce the risk of miscalculation surrounding the transfer. He said the decision on the handover would be made by politicians and diplomats, adding: "Commanders in the field must continue to offer their best military advice on how to reduce risk and strengthen deterrence and defense. That is the role the military should play."
