WASHINGTON — Behind President Donald Trump's push for South Korean investment in Alaska's liquefied natural gas project lies the surge in living costs battering the state, and a growing fear that Republicans could lose a Senate seat to the Democrats.
Polls and betting markets released through Sept. 30 local time show Democratic candidate Mary Peltola slightly ahead of incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. An average of four recent surveys puts Peltola, who previously served as Alaska's representative in the U.S. House, at 46.5% against 45.0% for Sullivan, a lead of 1.5 percentage points. Election analysis firm Decision Desk puts Peltola's chances of defeating Sullivan at slightly above 60%. On the betting site Kalshi, the probability of a Democratic win stands at 70%.
Alaska has traditionally been classified as Republican territory. In the last presidential election, Trump beat Democratic candidate Kamala Harris there by a comfortable 13 percentage points. Sullivan won reelection to a six-year Senate term after 2015 and is now seeking a third term. The state's other Senate seat is also held by a Republican, Lisa Murkowski.
Soaring living costs, however, have chilled public sentiment toward the governing party. Alaska's vast size limits the transport of necessities such as gasoline and milk, and prices have spiked in some remote communities. In Shungnak, in northwestern Alaska, gasoline reached $26.82 a gallon, or about 36,500 won, in August. That works out to roughly 9,600 won a liter, more than 6.5 times the U.S. national average at the time of $4.10 a gallon.
According to the Washington Post, milk topped $13 a gallon in Bethel, in western Alaska, where gasoline reached $10. Milk sells for $3 to $4 a gallon at U.S. supermarkets. The Post reported that few places feel concern over rising prices as acutely as Alaska, and that Democrats believe high prices and discontent with the Trump administration will help them reclaim the state's Senate seat.
The Senate currently stands at 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. Most analysts expect Republicans to hold the Senate even if they lose the House, but Democrats have recently voiced confidence that they can take the chamber as well. Alaska is seen as a state Democrats must win to secure a Senate majority. Against that backdrop, Trump's decision to cite specific figures for South Korean investment, the jobs it would create and the gasoline price declines that would follow — all without an agreement with Seoul — is read as an appeal to voters.
