According to Japan's Nikkei on the 30th, rising durian prices have led a growing number of farmers across Thailand and Southeast Asia to replace existing crops with durian. Demand from China, now the world's largest durian consumer, has driven the expansion.
China is the biggest market for durian, including fresh and frozen products. Last year durian accounted for nearly half of China's fruit imports by value. Durian was also Thailand's largest export item to China.
In Pato, in Thailand's southern Chumphon province, a farmer who had grown mangosteen switched crops as durian prices climbed. "Durian prices are now more than 10 baht (about 400 won) per kilogram below their 2020-2024 peak, but my income has actually risen as yields increased," the farmer said.
As recently as four years ago, Thailand effectively monopolized China's fresh durian market. Even as Thai output grew, Chinese demand outpaced it, pushing prices steadily higher.
But competition for the Chinese market is intensifying. Thailand's dominance began to erode in 2022, when Vietnamese durian was approved for export to China. Chinese customs data show Vietnam supplied 941,004 tons of China's fresh durian imports last year, or 50.37% of the total, narrowly ahead of Thailand's 920,749 tons, or 49.29%.
Beyond Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Cambodia are also expanding durian cultivation. As China diversifies its sources, the price competitiveness and scarcity value long enjoyed by Thai durian may weaken.
Tighter Chinese quarantine rules are another hurdle for Thai farmers. Since last year, China has stepped up testing for auramine O, a suspected carcinogen, and cadmium. The measures at one point sharply reduced Vietnamese durian exports. Thailand has responded by increasing the number of laboratories certified to test for residues.
A bigger variable is China's own production. Commercial cultivation in Yunnan and Hainan provinces remains limited in scale, but output is rising steadily. If China expands domestic production and reduces its reliance on imports, Thai durian's foothold in the market could narrow.
The Thai government is seeking to diversify exports to India, the European Union and the United States to reduce dependence on China. But some note that durian's pungent smell limits prospects for opening new overseas markets.
For Thai farmers, strong Chinese demand is both an opportunity and a risk. With few other large overseas markets available, a rush by farmers into durian could create oversupply and drive prices down.
