As many as 11 million U.S. workers may need to change occupations by 2035 because of the rapid advance of artificial intelligence, according to a new analysis.
McKinsey & Company said in a report released on the 29th that AI will bring not only job losses but also the difficult challenge of large-scale occupational transitions, Bloomberg reported.
The report estimated that 11 million people, or about 7% of the U.S. labor force, could have to find different occupations by 2035 because of AI. At that pace, the number of workers switching occupations would roughly triple from the current level of 215,000 a year by 2035.
"Even accounting for hard-to-predict variables such as the pace of corporate AI adoption and population aging, the number of workers facing transitions will range from 6 million to 16 million," the report said. "AI may also create abundant job opportunities, but if those jobs require different skills, credentials, locations and pay structures, millions of workers will lose their jobs."
Three broad occupational groups were identified as most likely to face transitions: office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics. Customer service representatives, cashiers and warehouse workers fall into these categories. Low-wage workers were estimated to be eight times more likely to face a job change than high-wage workers.
The report advised the federal government along with state and local governments to help workers prepare for occupational transitions. It called for providing specific and timely labor market information to workers at risk of displacement and for funding retraining programs.
Tanguy Catlin of the McKinsey Global Institute, one of the report's authors, said education systems have developed mainly around young people. "Now we need to continuously upgrade the capabilities of the existing workforce that needs to change jobs, and that is the issue we want to bring into public discussion," the researcher said.
