South Korea's stock market will try to secure the KOSPI above the 7,000 level this week, with Samsung Electronics' (005930) preliminary third-quarter results serving as the catalyst, even as rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields weigh on equities. Following strong earnings at Micron Technology and robust Korean semiconductor exports, whether Samsung Electronics meets lowered market expectations is expected to determine the index's direction.
The KOSPI closed last week (Sept. 28 to Oct. 2) at 7,003.74 points, down 1.09% from the previous week, according to the Korea Exchange on the 6th. The index plunged 2.70% on Sept. 28, the first trading day after the Chuseok holiday, but pared losses later in the week to reclaim the 7,000 level.
The biggest focus this week is Samsung Electronics' preliminary earnings announcement scheduled for the 8th. Attention is turning to whether the KOSPI can hold the 7,000 level it barely recovered. Forecasts for Samsung Electronics' third-quarter operating profit have been lowered on the won's recent strength, but indicators underpinning the semiconductor cycle are improving. South Korea's semiconductor exports last month rose 262.8% from a year earlier to $60.3 billion (about 81.19 trillion won), a record high.
Micron also posted results that beat market expectations. Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 came in at $54.23 billion (about 73.02 trillion won), above the market consensus, and the company guided next-quarter revenue to a range of $60 billion to $63 billion. Micron said more than 75% of next year's output has already been allocated, raising expectations for memory demand.
Analysts say Samsung Electronics is likely to meet or exceed the lowered estimates, and that chip stocks will subsequently regain market leadership. "Rising memory prices, solid Korean exports and Micron's strong results are positive variables for Samsung Electronics' earnings," said Lee Kyoung-min, an analyst at Daishin Securities. "If upward revisions to profit forecasts resume, we expect chip stocks to regain leadership and the KOSPI to settle above the 7,000 level."
U.S. Treasury yields, however, remain a factor capping the index. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to as high as 5.23% in intraday trading on the 1st. Beyond oil prices, the U.S. fiscal deficit, expanded Treasury supply and corporate bond issuance by artificial intelligence companies are also adding upward pressure on yields. Higher market rates raise corporate funding costs and increase valuation pressure on stocks.
That is why U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve's calendar are drawing attention this week. The Institute for Supply Management's September services index is due on the 5th local time, and New York Federal Reserve President John Williams is scheduled to speak on the 6th. The minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, to be released on the 7th, will show members' views on further tightening.
Supply and demand conditions are another variable. Share buybacks by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which have supported the market, are entering their final stage. As of the 1st, Samsung Electronics had about 900 billion won of buyback capacity remaining, while SK hynix had purchased 76.24% of its planned volume. With foreign investors continuing to sell — net selling of more than 20 trillion won over the past month — the impact of shrinking buyback capacity on supply and demand bears watching.
Ultimately, the key is whether improving semiconductor earnings and easing macroeconomic pressure emerge together. "There are short-term earnings concerns from the won's strength, but the structural growth trend at semiconductor companies continues," said Na Jung-hwan, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities. "Breaking through the top of the trading range will require an improvement in the macro environment."
