Property tax bills on major Seoul apartments could rise by an average of more than 50% from this year by 2030 if home prices keep climbing, according to a new analysis. The sharpest increases are projected in Nowon, Dobong and Gangbuk districts — areas that have long carried lighter tax burdens — where the rate of increase would exceed that of the three affluent Gangnam-area districts.
The findings come from a simulation model that Rep. Shin Dong-wook of the People Power Party, a member of the National Assembly's National Policy Committee, obtained from KB Kookmin Bank and released on the 5th. The analysis covered 125 apartment complexes — the five most expensive in each of Seoul's 25 districts. It assumed a single-home household owning one apartment of about 100 square meters, and projected that the 10.3% rise in Seoul apartment prices recorded from January through September this year would continue annually.
If the fair market value ratio — the share of a government-assessed home value that actually counts toward the tax base — stays at the current 45%, the average base property tax would climb 53.5%, from 2.197 million won this year to 3.373 million won in 2030. The base tax refers to the property tax itself, excluding the local education tax and other surcharges.
For the 15 complexes in Nowon, Dobong and Gangbuk, the figure would rise 76.1%, from 753,000 won to 1.326 million won — a steeper increase than the 46.6% projected for Gangnam, Seocho and Songpa. Geumcheon, Gwanak and Guro districts would see a 65.3% rise, from 1.102 million won to 1.822 million won. Mapo, Yongsan and Seongdong were estimated to climb 49.5%, from 3.309 million won to 4.948 million won.
Many complexes now paying less than 1 million won in annual base property tax are expected to cross that threshold by 2030. A 106-square-meter unit at Songcheon Centreville in Gangbuk would go from 810,000 won to 1.41 million won, and a 109-square-meter unit at Ssangyong in Dobong from 570,000 won to 1.07 million won. A 106-square-meter unit at Keonyoung 3rd in Nowon would rise from 930,000 won to 1.59 million won.
Raising the fair market value ratio to 50% starting next year would push the average 2030 property tax to 3.82 million won, up 73.7% from this year. Under that scenario, a 112-square-meter unit at Raemian One Bailey in Seocho would jump from 6.76 million won this year to about 11 million won. Six complexes in total — including Hyundai 5th and 14th in Apgujeong and Trimage in Seongdong — would face base property taxes exceeding 10 million won.
A 60% ratio would raise the burden further. The overall average property tax in 2030 would reach 4.71 million won, 2.14 times this year's level, and the number of complexes paying 10 million won or more would grow to 11. For major complexes in Nowon, Dobong and Gangbuk, the average bill would rise to 1.98 million won, 2.63 times this year's figure.
Even if price gains slow, the analysis found that property taxes would keep rising. Assuming an annual increase of 5.15% — half this year's pace — and a fair market value ratio held at 45%, the average property tax in 2030 would reach 2.83 million won, 28.6% higher than this year.
