U.S. memory chipmaker Micron Technology has posted earnings and guidance that beat market expectations, reviving optimism toward South Korean chip stocks. Attention is now shifting to Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK hynix (000660.KS). How long the memory upturn driven by expanding artificial intelligence investment can last is seen as the key variable for further gains in chip shares.
Micron said on Sept. 30 that revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter, covering June through August, came to $54.23 billion, according to the financial investment industry on the 4th. That topped the market consensus of $51.07 billion. Guidance for the current quarter also beat forecasts at $61.5 billion. Analysts said AI infrastructure spending is continuing to lift demand not only for high-bandwidth memory but also for conventional DRAM and NAND flash.
Korean chip stocks responded to Micron's surprise results. On the 1st, after the earnings release, Samsung Electronics closed at 276,000 won, up 2.79% from the previous session, while SK hynix finished at 1.833 million won, up 3.21%. The next test comes around the 8th, when Samsung Electronics is due to release preliminary third-quarter earnings.
Brokerage expectations are running high. Samsung Securities (016360.KS) projected Samsung Electronics' third-quarter revenue at 217.7 trillion won and operating profit at 104.9 trillion won. It estimated that the semiconductor division alone accounted for 106.9 trillion won in operating profit. The brokerage attributed the profit growth to a 22% quarter-on-quarter rise in average DRAM selling prices. Hana Securities lowered its estimates because of currency effects but still expected DRAM and NAND prices to have risen 15% and 18%, respectively.
After the earnings release, HBM4 is expected to emerge as the next focus. Hana Securities said HBM4 shipments to Samsung Electronics' major customers will ramp up next year, lifting HBM's share of total DRAM revenue to around 15%. Long-term supply contracts and growing HBM revenue could improve earnings visibility and support valuations, the brokerage said.
For SK hynix as well, analysts are leaning toward a sustained upturn rather than a peak-out in the industry cycle. NH Investment & Securities (005940.KS) said memory demand is rising as AI inference and AI agents spread, while expanding HBM demand tied to growth in the market for AI application-specific integrated circuits, or ASICs, will limit increases in conventional DRAM supply. Shinhan Securities (008670.KS) said HBM4 adoption and higher content per unit among GPU and ASIC customers could allow HBM to accelerate DRAM price increases again from the first quarter of next year.
With share prices already up sharply, however, market attention is moving from strong earnings alone to how long the memory boom will last. Samsung Electronics has already completed its planned share buyback, and SK hynix is expected to finish its own repurchases earlier than initially scheduled, raising the possibility of a gap in demand for the shares.
"Memory demand is in fact increasing as inference and AI agents spread, so we expect the strategic value and binding power of long-term supply contracts to strengthen as well," said Ryu Young-ho, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities.
