Prices for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) are expected to more than double next year as the artificial intelligence boom keeps supply tight. Micron Technology has said it already locked in contracts for most of its 2027 HBM output at prices above this year's levels, a development analysts say strengthens the negotiating position of Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK hynix (000660.KS) as both ramp up production of sixth-generation HBM4.
Micron told its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call on the 1st that it had completed contracts with customers for the bulk of its 2027 HBM bit supply, according to industry sources. Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said next year's HBM prices would be far higher than in 2026. He also said the higher prices would restore HBM profitability, which had recently fallen behind that of conventional DRAM.
Research firm TrendForce projects the average selling price of HBM will rise 121% next year from this year. The firm attributed the increase to the continuing supply shortage, a growing share of relatively expensive HBM4 and the start of expanded production of seventh-generation HBM4E in the second half of next year.
Individual product prices are also set to climb sharply. Based on industry estimates, the price of a 12-high 36-gigabyte HBM4 stack is expected to more than double to around $1,300 next year from about $600 this year. Prices vary by customer, specification and contract terms, but the shift in the flagship product from fifth-generation HBM3E to HBM4 is expected to widen margins.
Micron's statement that its HBM supply for next year is effectively sold out is a positive signal for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which are negotiating 2027 prices with customers. The three companies effectively divide the HBM market between them. Because one supplier has secured a substantial price increase in actual contracts, the others have more room to reflect higher market prices in their own talks.
Samsung Electronics in particular has been expanding its market share rapidly on the strength of HBM4. Its global HBM share by revenue rose 12 percentage points to 33% in the second quarter from 21% in the first quarter, according to Counterpoint Research. Over the same period, SK hynix slipped to 50% from 58% and Micron to 18% from 21%. SK hynix remains the market leader, but Samsung's pursuit has accelerated.
Samsung began mass-production shipments of HBM4 this year and has supplied 12-high HBM4E samples to major customers, increasing the share of next-generation products in its lineup. If contract prices rise next year just as HBM4 shipments increase, both volume and pricing would feed into earnings at the same time. How steadily the company can secure customer qualification and raise mass-production yields for HBM4 is expected to shape the pace of its share gains.
SK hynix has also been increasing output since starting mass-production shipments of HBM4 in the second quarter. In July, the company said HBM4 yields and quality had approached the levels of its existing HBM3E. It said it is negotiating 2027 HBM volumes and prices with major customers. With confirmation that Micron sold HBM at prices above this year's levels, analysts say SK hynix is also entering price talks in a favorable market environment.
The difficulty of expanding HBM supply quickly is another factor supporting higher prices. HBM stacks multiple DRAM chips vertically and uses larger die areas, consuming more wafers than conventional DRAM. Kim Tae-woo, executive vice president of Samsung Electronics' memory business, recently said wafers allocated to HBM production would rise from about 20% of global DRAM capacity now to close to 30% next year.
TrendForce said memory makers are taking a more aggressive stance on price increases in their 2027 HBM negotiations than in previous rounds. "Demand for AI memory keeps growing, so supply and demand for memory, including HBM, is likely to stay tight for some time," an industry official said. "Both Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are increasing HBM4 production, but how they allocate limited wafers between HBM and server and conventional DRAM, and how steadily they secure yields and customer qualification, will affect profitability and market share."
