Market research firm TrendForce raised its 2027 HBM price outlook on Sept. 30, citing an expanding share of HBM4 (sixth-generation) products and persistent supply constraints. TrendForce projected that the blended average selling price of HBM in 2027, reflecting the sales mix by product, will surge 121% from a year earlier.
The firm expects the memory supply shortage to persist through next year as HBM and conventional DRAM continue to compete for advanced process and wafer capacity amid a shortfall in AI infrastructure supply.
According to TrendForce, graphics processing unit (GPU) and application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) makers are weighing reductions in HBM capacity per chip because of limited HBM supply and rising system build costs.
Eight-layer products, which cost less than 12-layer versions and help cut component costs, are expected to be adopted first. However, because a lower DRAM stack count does not reduce base die costs, eight-layer products carry a higher production cost per gigabit (Gb) than 12-layer products. As a result, the per-Gb selling price of eight-layer HBM in 2027 is expected to be roughly 10% to 20% higher than that of 12-layer products.
"As HBM availability and rising costs influence purchasing decisions, more GPU and ASIC makers are expected to consider adopting eight-layer products, and their actual adoption share will expand," TrendForce said.
With HBM demand expected to remain strong, domestic brokerages have been raising their target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Mirae Asset Securities lifted its target price for Samsung Electronics to 400,000 won from 370,000 won last month, while Yuanta Securities raised its target to 630,000 won from 530,000 won. For SK hynix, DB Financial Investment raised its target price to 2.3 million won from 2 million won, and Mirae Asset Securities to 3.1 million won from 2.8 million won.
