Prices for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) are expected to more than double next year, a forecast that points to a sharp rise in revenue at Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK hynix (000660.KS) as both chipmakers ramp up output of new HBM products used in the high-performance artificial intelligence chips of global technology giants.
The average selling price of HBM products will climb 121% next year from this year, according to market research firm TrendForce on the 29th. Supply remains tight, and the mix is shifting toward higher-priced products as HBM4, launched in the second half of this year, is followed by the next-generation HBM4E in the second half of next year.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have accelerated HBM production since the second half of this year. Both are stepping up HBM4 shipments in time for the launch of Nvidia's new AI chip, Vera Rubin. In its second-quarter earnings announcement, Samsung Electronics said it would more than triple third-quarter HBM4 revenue from the previous quarter, while SK hynix said it had lifted HBM4 yields to the level of its previous-generation HBM3E and was entering a full ramp-up.
Even with the expanded supply, the HBM shortage is expected to persist for some time. In response to rising prices, technology giants are considering cutting the capacity loaded onto each chip, using eight-layer stacks in AI chips instead of the 12-layer products that stack 12 DRAM dies.
Reducing the number of stacked DRAM dies, however, does not lower the cost of the base die at the bottom of the HBM stack. As a result, the cost per gigabit for eight-layer products will be 10% to 20% higher than for 12-layer products, TrendForce said.
"Adjusting HBM capacity down to eight layers may help ease upward pressure on graphics processing unit prices next year, but it will be difficult to reverse the overall rise in HBM prices," TrendForce said.
