The annual boost to manufacturing output from South Korea's accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) would be nearly eight times the projected decline in agricultural and fishery output, a government analysis showed. Industry officials say Korea should move quickly to join, arguing that the farming and fishing sectors could also see unexpected export gains if they focus on upgrading their operations on the back of the global popularity of Korean food.
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy released the preliminary findings of its economic impact analysis on CPTPP accession on the 28th, together with the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries and the Ministry of SMEs and Startups. The government previously pushed for CPTPP membership in 2021, but the bid collapsed just before a scheduled report to the National Assembly amid opposition from farming and fishing groups and public backlash over imports of Japanese seafood from Fukushima. In reviving the bid, the government updated the earlier analysis to reflect the expansion of CPTPP membership since 2021 and shifts in the trade environment.
According to the ministry, joining the CPTPP would leave Korea's real gross domestic product 0.38 percentage point higher after 10 years than it would be without membership. Market opening would generate production gains across upstream and downstream industries linked to each manufacturing item, averaging 6.3 trillion to 6.7 trillion won ($4.5 billion to $4.8 billion) a year over the 15 years after the agreement takes effect. Of that, gains accruing to small and medium-sized enterprises alone would come to nearly 1.1 trillion to 1.2 trillion won.
By contrast, the decline in agricultural and fishery output resulting from CPTPP accession was estimated at an annual average of 850 billion won over 15 years. Losses in farming, forestry and fisheries came to 710 billion won, 60.6 billion won and 81.7 billion won, respectively. The analysis is a preliminary projection based on an economic model, however, and the actual impact could differ depending on the details of the accession talks and changes in the trade environment.
Industry voices say Korea should hurry, given the clear gains for overall economic growth. Accession requires the consent of every existing member, meaning the longer Korea waits, the harder the process becomes. The CPTPP now has 12 members, including Japan, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Chile and Peru, after Britain joined in 2024. Together they account for about 580 million people and roughly 15% of global GDP.
